Update: Severe Storms Possible Tuesday In West Central Missouri
Tuesday Update 8:25 AM:
Most of what I wrote in my 11:00 PM update last night is still relevant this morning as most of the forecasts haven't changed much. Meteorologists with KSHB and KCTV in Kansas City, as well as KMIZ in Columbia, are all predicting two rounds of potential severe weather today, as is the National Weather Service.
Meteorologists seem to think more of us will experience storms tonight than those who will experience storms this afternoon, but where those storms do develop this afternoon they will be more volatile than the severe weather expected tonight.
The National Weather Service has now placed all of West Central Missouri including Sedalia, Warrensburg, Knob Noster, Clinton, Lake of the Ozarks, Boonville, Columbia, Jefferson City, as well as the river towns of Hannibal and Quincy, Illinois, and much of Interstate 70 from Kansas City eastward at enhanced risk for severe weather.
The National Weather Service is predicting:
- The first round of storms to impact northeastern Missouri in the mid-afternoon hours.
- A second round of storms from 6:00 PM through tomorrow morning along a cold front moving through the area. (Forecasters with the NWS predicted the timing of these storms last night, scroll down to see that.)
- The best chance for severe weather is in northeast and central Missouri.
- As I've written before, these storms are capable of producing strong wind, large hail, and possible tornadoes.
- Wind will also be a concern today with a Wind Advisory in effect for east central and northeast Kansas and central, north central, northwest, and west central Missouri. Winds will be out of the south from 20 to 30 miles per hour, with gusts of 45-50 miles per hour. Our weather has also created elevated fire weather-related concerns in Eastern Kansas and Western Missouri.
One thing all meteorologists and weather forecasters are saying is, today is a day to keep yourself informed of the latest forecast. Our radio stations provide updated forecasts hourly from Weatherology, and we will also pass along any watches and warnings issued by The National Weather Service.
Late Monday Evening Update 11:00 PM:
Earlier this afternoon the National Weather Service issued a Wind Advisory for east central and northeast Kansas and central, north central, northwest, and west central Missouri. Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects, down tree limbs, and cause power outages. Winds will be out of the south from 20 to 30 miles per hour, with guests 45-50 miles per hour.
The late evening forecast from our forecaster Weatherology calls for a 30 percent chance of late afternoon scattered thunderstorms, with a better chance of storms on Tuesday evening. You can get the latest Weatherology forecast here, and hourly on our radio stations.
The National Weather Service out of Kansas City posted on their Facebook page Monday night that tomorrow, April 4, "Is a great day to remain weather aware with a couple of different chances of severe weather." They also outlined when the timing of the storms.
- Round one of the storms includes hail, strong winds, and isolated strong tornadoes. The timing of these storms is estimated to occur between noon and 3:00 PM CDT and there is medium confidence of these storms developing.
- Round two of the storms include damaging winds, large hail, and isolated brief tornadoes. Round two is expected to impact the Kansas City area between 9:00 PM - Midnight, and the Sedalia, Marshall, and Columbia areas between Midnight - 2:00 AM. The National Weather Service has medium confidence of these storms developing.
If necessary, we'll update this blog on the morning of Tuesday, April 4.
Monday Update 8:23 AM:
Our forecaster Weatherology has taken rain and storms out of their forecast for this morning, Monday, April 3. While the National Weather Service's Hazardous Weather Outlook for Missouri says, "Isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected Monday morning, mainly across northern Missouri."
Tuesday seems to be shaping up as more of a concern for weather forecasters in our area. Sedalia, Warrensburg, Jefferson City, Boonville, and Columbia all have an enhanced risk for severe weather. While cities like Moberly, Kirksville, Hannibal, Quincy, Illinois, and Keokuk, Iowa find themselves at moderate risk for severe weather.
The best chance for high-impact severe weather will occur in central and northeast Missouri during the afternoon and evening hours. Primary hazards are still strong winds, large hail, and tornadoes. Additionally, expect gusty winds on Tuesday topping out with gusts over 40 miles per hour. Additionally, the National Weather Service is saying conditions are ideal for wildfires in Eastern Kansas and Western Missouri.
At this point, the National Weather Service isn't sure how storms will evolve tomorrow, so if you're in Mid Missouri, West Central Missouri, or heading toward Illinois or Iowa I'd say you want to keep an eye on the sky and stay aware of the latest forecast. We have hourly updates from Weatherology and will pass along any warnings or watches on our stations.
Another round of severe storms is possible for Monday and Tuesday, April 3 and April 4, in West Central Missouri. It all starts this afternoon, Sunday, April 2, with more high winds.
Our forecaster Weatherology says our area will see windy conditions today with winds 20-25 miles per hour. The National Weather Service is calling for wind guests between 30 -40 miles per hour. This will be followed by storms as we head back to work Monday and Tuesday.
As for the storms, according to the National Weather Service, the chances for severe weather are greater on Tuesday. On Monday the Sedalia and Warrensburg areas find themselves on the edge of a marginal chance for severe weather, while other parts of our area, like Clinton, Jefferson City, and Lake of the Ozarks isn't expected to be impacted by severe weather. You can check out the National Weather Service's map for Monday here.
Tuesday, much of our area including Sedalia, Warrensburg, Jefferson City, and Boonville has an enhanced chance for severe weather, however once again, Clinton and Lake of the Ozarks only have a slight risk of severe weather. You can check out the National Weather Service's map for Tuesday here.
The National Weather Service says high winds and hail are possible Monday, while Tuesday strong winds, hail, and tornadoes are possible. High gusty winds are also possible again Tuesday with guests up to 40 miles per hour.
Essentially, most meteorologists seem to agree the best chance for severe weather will be later in the day Tuesday, April 4. KCTV's Warren Sears explains that a cold front will interact with our warm humid weather Tuesday afternoon popping off some thunderstorms and elevating the risk of severe storms. Sawyer Jackson's forecast from KIMZ out of Columbia concurs.
So to recap:
- Gusty winds 20-25 miles per hour, with some gusts reaching 40 miles per hour today. Maybe a slight chance of a thunderstorm tonight.
- Monday: slight chance of thunderstorms that the National Weather Service says could be severe, however, local forecasts seem to be downplaying the severity of the storms.
- Tuesday: Best chance of severe weather is Tuesday when a cold front interacts with warm humid air later in the day.