If you think forecasting the weather is hard, you should see all the factors that go into predicting what rivers will do. There is reason for concern though as it appears there's a growing chance that the Mississippi River will exceed flood stages this Spring along its banks in Missouri and Illinois.

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This concern about Mississippi River flooding comes from NOAA's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service. When you look at their forecast for the period covering April through June of 2023, here's what the Missouri and Illinois part of the Mississippi River look like.

NOAA Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Center
NOAA Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Center
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I also checked to see what the National Weather Service is saying about their Spring flooding outlook and it's concerning. Here are their key points: (Note: it's not all bad news)

  • Well above normal spring flood risk for the Mississippi River.
  • Near normal spring flood risk for local tributary rivers.
  • The flood risk has decreased slightly during the past 2 weeks due to drier than expected conditions in the local area.

Another area of concern is that northern parts of the Mississippi River are already seeing some minor flooding. While this isn't a 5-alarm flood alarm, it is worth paying attention to what the Mississippi River is doing especially to our north.

I was surprised when I learned about this since most of our winter in the Missouri/Illinois area has been relatively dry. However, Minnesota and Iowa saw huge snowfall and that's what really matters when it comes to the river and potential flood danger.

No reason for panic or even great alarm yet. Just a heads up to check back often to see what the National Weather Service is saying about the mighty river that borders our states.

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