Missouri Winter Forecast: NOAA Says It Can Go Either Way
Earlier this month, I shared the winter forecast from the Farmers' Almanac, complete with some dates when we might see significant precipitation. The winter forecast from the National Weather Service is a little less committal about Missouri.
The headline of NOAA's winter outlook is pretty simple: warmer and drier South, wetter North. As far as temperatures are concerned, warmer-than-average temperatures are predicted in the South, the eastern Great Lakes, the eastern seaboard, New England, and northern Alaska. The Gulf Coast and Texas are the most likely areas to see above-average temperatures. Below-average temperatures are likely in Southern Alaska, with a decent chance of below-average temperatures in the Pacific Northwest and northern High Plains.
Missouri and a large part of the country have equal chances of seeing temperatures below, near, or above the average seasonal mean.
Let's talk about precipitation. The Great Lakes states will see wetter-than-average conditions, with the same favored for northern and western Alaska, the Pacific Northwest, and the northern tier of the U.S. The probabilities are strongest in portions of Ohio, Indiana, and Kentucky. Drier-than-average conditions will be seen in states bordering the Gulf of Mexico, as well as in Texas and southern New Mexico.
Missouri, much of California, the rest of the central Plains states, and the I-95 corridor from Boston to Washington have equal chances of below, near, or above-average precipitation.
So, what does all this mean for Missouri? As far as the National Weather Service is concerned, I would assume it means business as usual. At this point, nothing indicates we'll have a drier, wetter, colder, or warmer winter season between December and February.
I think we have to go into the winter months expecting a typical winter in Missouri. From late December through February, snow, ice, and sleet are always possible. There will also be a couple of cold snaps during that same time frame. Yet, when it's all said and done, hopefully, we'll come through the winter months without it being too cold, snowy, or icy. Of course, with equal chances of it being drier or wetter, warmer or colder, we can't discount a frigid, wet, winter. Here's hoping that doesn't happen.